When AOV goes up and profit goes down

Here's a weird one.

I've seen brands increase AOV ... and watch profit get worse.

How does that happen?

Because they pushed customers to buy more than they were ready for.

It looks great in the dashboard. Average order value is up. Revenue per customer is up.

But then …

The AOV went up. But the customer didn't succeed.

Here's the trap …

When you optimize for "get them to buy more," you can accidentally break the path.

You stack bonuses. You push bundles. You create urgency. And customers buy ... but they buy more than helps them.

They get overwhelmed. They don't use everything. They evaluate too early. They leave.

You traded long-term value for short-term revenue.

The reframe …

AOV isn't the goal. Customer progress is the goal.

The question isn't "How do I get them to spend more?"

It's "How do I get them to succeed faster?"

When customers succeed, they come back. They buy more over time. They tell friends. They become profitable.

When customers buy big and fail, you get one order and a refund request.

The fix …

Design your offer around what helps them win, not what raises the average order.

Sometimes that means selling less upfront. Sometimes it means a smaller starter kit. Sometimes it means saying "You don't need this yet."

Profit comes from customers going further safely. Not from customers buying more than they can use.

Tomorrow, I'll wrap this up with the one question to ask yourself this week ... and what to do if you don't like the answer.

See you tomorrow,

Jeremiah

P.S. Here's a diagnostic: Look at your highest AOV orders. What's the refund rate? What's the repeat rate? If those numbers are worse than your average orders, your AOV "optimization" might be a trap.

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